Bettors think Overeem is often a slight favorite. Current probability put him at -150 to help Lesnar's +120, meaning he has about a 55-60 percent possibility of winning the heavyweight deal with.
Consider, however, the situation that shadow his preparing for Lesnar. Overeem is on his own to be a fighter after a half-decade associated with success with Golden Fame. He left the group in September and established shop at Xtreme Couture with Las Vegas. But reported by those within the get away, he was barely seen during a workout session and spent the majority of his time for a private facility run simply by Vitor Belfort, where their training partners were held under wraps.
Then came a lawsuit targeted at freeing Overeem from his or her contract with Golden Fame, and his sudden departure to Holland to take care of his ailing mother. There, he kept company which has a few loyal friends via his previous affiliation plus flew in ex-UFC heavyweight along with former opponent Todd Duffee to maintain himself sharp. In between programs, he tended to loved ones.
And nearly gotten himself taken off tonight's fight card.
Not well-known a pre-fight test regarding performance-enhancing drugs, Overeem was summoned before the Nevada State Athletic Commission via telephone to clarify his sudden absence and disconnect using the commission in completing test overseas. He was given a conditional license as well as ordered to undergo further drug testing, but he emboldened longtime critics who believe he has chemical assistance.
Most fighters create a point of shutting off themselves with the distractions of the in the garden world, but in Overeem's event, the distractions undoubtedly crossed in the public to the personal inside three months since this individual signed to fight Lesnar.
The noise emanating in the former heavyweight champ's stay is absent leading in the bout. But his battles are public record, in addition to though incomplete, not insignificant.
What we do know usually Lesnar underwent surgery in May to repair the damage wrought by way of a second bout with this intestinal disorder diverticulitis, which he hasn't fought considering Cain Velasquez stopped him inside the first round with attacks and took his belt at UFC 121 the whole 14 months ago. We know that the surgery was profitable, that he quickly regained the majority that he lost throughout his illness, and that 12 inches wide of his lower digestive tract are no longer present in his physique.
Much of the rest is conjecture: how he is trained, how much he is trained, and how effectively he's trained. There are public representatives for instance UFC heavyweight Pat Craig and trainer Marty Morgan, who assure everyone that Lesnar will be the same guy he was before illness struck an additional time and that that raw power he brings on the cage hasn't dissipated.
Lesnar is touted to be a genetic freak of character, but in this situation, is that enough to help overcome what was looked at a career-killer - major surgery - the first time he grappled with diverticulitis, and do the historical complications of such a invasive surgery not connect with him?
This we'll discover tonight. It's anyone's guess whether Lesnar's illnesses and ring rust generate him more vulnerable inside the cage, or if Overeem's particular problems are such that he's less than prepared for a fighter that has a fraction of his encounter but possessing a skills that's felled several with the world's top heavyweights. Can certainly say, skills of both cancel out the potential traumas. Overeem is distracted for any bout, but in way of thinking, enough of a specialist to focus and recall the kickboxing tools this make him great. Lesnar doesn't contain the recent cage time, a reduced amount of the overall experience, but he has this type of far superior wrestling base that he probably won't need either to fit Overeem where he really doesn't strive to be.
What's certain is of which these issues make your simple striker vs. grappler pairing a lot more complicated. Overeem is easy years above Lesnar around striking, and Lesnar is usually light years beyond Overeem with wrestling. But can they actually what they do best, given the circumstances?
Several scenarios to consider:
1) Lesnar charges from gate: Overeem defended takedown following takedown against his most recent opponent, Fabricio Werdum, and managed to stay on his feet for that bulk of the struggle. But Werdum is some sort of jiu-jitsu specialist, and Lesnar is often a former NCAA Division WE national wrestling champion. There is no comparison. Lesnar has the power to drive Overeem over the canvas, but he has got to assume his opponent's sharp knees will be at the ready. Therefore, it's far more likely that he hangs out just enough to get Overeem guessing on when the shot will come.
2) Overeem lands a beginning shot: It's now well revealed that Lesnar's ability to take direct punishment is nowhere near that of alternative heavyweights. Those who've placed aggressive, forward pressure can see him wither under punches. Overeem is often a power puncher through as well as through, and if he catches the former champ with a strike, it's game over. Alongside Werdum, however, he had been thoroughly gun shy with letting his hands go, and as of the later part of, he's gravitated toward swinging hooks instead of straight and tight jabs and also crosses. That could abandon him exposed to...
3) Lesnar catches Overeem along the way in: Don't laugh. Overeem is actually powerful, but he's also predictable in the way he stalks forward and throws power hooks and knees up the middle. Lesnar could very well catch him on the way in, and if there's any under-examined component of the fight, it's that Overeem haven't taken a solid punch from a heavyweight in four ages. As a light heavyweight, his / her early record is pockmarked having knockout losses. Imagine Lesnar's 5XL mitts getting near Overeem's temple or perhaps jaw, and you before long see the danger, that is certainly compounded by the uncertainty he puts inside kickboxer's head about some sort of takedown.
Grudge match spices or herbs up otherwise exciting combat
For pure fans in the sport, Donald Cerrone (17-3 FIGHT 4-0 UFC) vs. Nate Diaz (14-7 FIGHT, 9-5 UFC) didn't have much promotion.
The lightweights are two in the most game fighters inside the division, if not the game. They always come in order to fight, they always engage, and stalling isn't much of their combat vocabulary.
Now, you might have your opinion on that has the better skills and that has the superior style. But to check out the two nearly arrived at blows at the pre-event hit conference after a well-documented (and a large number of would say overblown) episode at an open exercise routine, well, that just adds a whole other dimension of enthusiasm.
It also raises the question of that has the cooler head. The usually laid-back Cerrone was dead serious in the weigh-ins, which could mean he is too emotional and prone to mistakes. Diaz is continually angry at everyone, in addition to in true Diaz manner, he's made some mistakes in the cage (like moving for you to welterweight, leaving his limb out for Hermes Franca, in addition to kicking a downed Jason "Mayhem" Burns during an infamous in-cage Strikeforce brawl).
Cerrone, a veteran in the muay Thai circuit in advance of his foray into TRAINING FOR MMA, brings all the tools of his former trade to deal with plus a serious ability taking a punch. Diaz normally takes a punch, too, but he's more likely to lean on his boxing potential.
Historically, though, Diaz falls prey to strong wrestlers. Cerrone got caught in the guillotine choke and has been outpointed by now-UFC contender Ben Henderson, nonetheless his setbacks almost end there. Both prefer to help stand and trade punches. Nonetheless for Diaz, a quick grab with Cerrone's neck or arm is perhaps his best chance to fix an onslaught of serious punches, kicks and knees from his Terminator-like adversary. It's Cerrone's job to stay tight with his attacks and pick apart the fiery opponent.
Cerrone, who's gone for a tremendous tear in 2011, stands to break in to the top-five with a conquer Diaz. And Diaz's keep would soar with a strong upset.
Point is, there's numerous intriguing outcomes, all of which are exciting. Did we must gussy up things?
Within other main-card action, perennial welterweight contender Jon Fitch (23-3-1 FIGHT, 13-1-1 UFC) returns for the cage for the first time since his draw having B. J. Penn from UFC 127. He fulfills blue-chip prospect Johny Hendricks (11-1 MIXED MARTIAL ARTS, 6-1 UFC) in what many believe that they are yet another stopover fight within a fruitless quest to acquire another title shot at champ Georges St-Pierre. While a far more decorated collegiate wrestler as compared to Fitch, Hendricks has way less high-level experience and command of grappling throughout MMA. There are few martial artists who control opponents as good as Fitch, so Hendricks likely attempt to let his fists accomplish the talking. Fitch, since always, will mix striking having smothering takedowns and aim to grind down his lesser-known foe.
Also, light heavyweights Alexander Gustafsson (12-1 MIXED MARTIAL ARTS, 4-1 UFC) and Vladimir Matyushenko (25-5 MIXED MARTIAL ARTS, 7-3 UFC) square off in the bout originally scheduled to get UFC 133, and featherweight submitting expert Jim Hettes (9-0 FIGHTING, 1-0 UFC) gets a genuine test with "The Epitome of Fighter 12" semifinalist Nam Phan (17-9 FIGHTING, 1-2 UFC).
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